Hipster Revolutions

So Kaddafi is hiding somewhere in a ditch,like his long-time associate Sadam. There is no counter-attack or great beckoning to a people's army to crush the rebels. Face-it Kaddafi - it's over.

In a month or two from now, you will stand trial before a people's court, and expectedly you will shout at the judge and make theatrical rendition of an Islamic Braveheart to a half-amused audience. Your prison sentence or even execution will make your friends in Damascus have even further sleepless nights. You will claim to be a martyr, but no-one will heed your call. Your legacy of 40 years of building a nation will be matched by 40 years of embarrassment for your children's children.  

At this juncture in this so-called Arab spring, it's an apt time to consider what life will be like after Kaddafi goes. But before doing that, it's even more important to understand why Kaddafi left in the first place. The answer to that has two secret ingredients: Obama and economics. 

Barak Obama's famous Cairo speech in June 2009 was a symbolic milestone and prelude to this Arab discontent. Although he said "no single speech can eradicate years of mistrust, nor can I answer in the time that I have all the complex questions that brought us to this point", his words sure planted the seeds of discontent in the populous. Think about it. He arrived in the middle east's largest nation to announce to the world a new order of Arab relations, taking an occasional jab at dictators opposed to democratic reforms. Love it or hate it, Mubarak no doubt felt the personal pinch of that speech.

Sprinkle a little bit of economic collapse with  contempt for relic regimes from the 20th century and vuala! you have a revolution. 

The hipster of this revolution was Tunisia. One forgets that the rioting in Tunisia kicked off over the exorbitant price of food. It's always the case. People get ticked off when the "rent is too darn high".   This was exacerbated by the famous incident of a man committing suicide in the street after his licence for his small vending cart was revoked by corrupt officials. A few weeks later, the leader of Tunisia was out. Then Egypt. Then Yemen. Then Libya, Syria and perhaps even the rest of the gang. 

We have seen this all before. In fact, the Arab spring is a play on words from the Prague spring in the eastern bloc countries. So if we have seen this all before, then where is it heading? 

This is where America can come full circle and step in. Obama supported democratic reforms in the middle east in his famous Cairo speech but now with a political vacuum in that region, proper democracy must come into play. The US must support moderate leaders behind the scenes to be the voice of the discontent that ignited the revolutions.

The era of despotic rule is so 1990's and Kaddafi, Mubarak and friends are relics of that time. What is needed now is reasonable and pragmatic leaders. The last thing we need is charismatic, strong or military-backed leaders to step up to the plate as was the case in the 1950's and 60's. 

Obama has taken a back seat in his countries' involvement in the NATO strikes on Libya but now the moment is ripe for him to encourage stable elections. America has to shake-off its fear of the words "regime change" (and all that it implies). If it fails to get involved as the dominant nation in shaping democracy in the region, then other players will step in and we will go back to the 20th centuries' retro-dictators. And I mean that not in a hipster way. 

Malema and Other Tokoloshes

Julius Malema is facing, yet again, another disciplinary hearing for being out of line with the ruling party. This follows a comment he made several months back calling for regime change in the most ruthless and violent country in Africa: Botswana?

Luthuli House was sieged by hundreds of supporters of Malema, showing their  support by stoning police and journalists (agents of the regime). The riots reached a pinnacle when Malema actually had  to come out to encourage the crowd to save its energy for other battles and not to attack photographers. The hearings have moved to a undisclosed location to stem the bottle-neck of activity surrounding Luthuli House.

Malema's hearing makes me wonder. He is no doubt an instigator and encourages controversial ideas. From shooting boers to overthrowing Zuma, Malema's mere presence in South Africa has many grey-haired folks worried. But is he really a huge threat?

South Africa thrives on the idea of a boogeyman. Whether it is an imperialist, a scarlet pimpernel or a "swart gevaar", all cultures within our nation need a nemesis - a galvanizing force if you will. Sometimes this threat is real but most of the times it is based on an irrational fear.

This is entrenched in our national identity. The threat of the English taking over the Cape created enough hysteria for Afrikaners to pack-up and head up north. The threat of Mandela, the scarlet pimpernel, coming out of jail caused enough South Africans to pack-up and head for Perth. Not even 5 years ago, the threat of Zuma's charisma was seen as the downfall old school Xhosa nostra ruling elite. South Africans like fear. We thrive on it even if it is to our own detriment.

Malema is not a great leader. Charismatic and popular? Yes. A threat? Perhaps. But importantly, he is more a symbol of an idea than an actual person. No doubt he has support and will get only stronger. He may even become President one day long in the future. Perhaps though, we make him out to be larger than what he really is. Even if we were to sell Malema to the Chinese or get rid of him some how, we would soon find another boogeyman to be scared of. It's our national character, it's who we are, regardless of skin colour.