Politics 2.0

MACH 3'S PREDICTIONS

I dont wish to prophesise about doom and apocalyptic revelations. In fact i dont want to prophesise at all, considering the most obvious fact, i am not a prophet and secondly i may be wrong. But contrary to popular opinion i do have a mind and can rationalise as a person. In light of this i would like to make my predictions for the next few months in the middle east.

First and foremost, what few people understand about the middle east is that everything is linked and that the entire geo-politicl sphere of that region is in a transitional period where superpowers and the not so superpowers are playing high stakes blackjack in an attempt to assert dominance over the region and reshape their future in and of the middle east.

Iran is surrounded by US forces on both sides and they have a legitimate fear that they could be next. Israel's withdrawal from Gaza and Lebanon was seen by the Arab world as a sign of weakness. The US needs the oil and hegemonic status that it used to enjoy in the 1990's. It is a must win situation for all parties concerned and all states are choosing their friends and their foes wisely to advance their goals.

And it is under this climate that Hizbollah guerillas, tugged by the strings of Teheran and Damascus, seized on the opportunity of a fight and kidnapped 2 Israeli soldiers two weeks ago. The analogy I like to use is that of a school playground fight. Everyone is either on one side or the other making insulting and aggressive remarks, with the anxiety for the big fight. But here, a little pipsqweak of Hizbollah kicks the shin of the Israelis causing a domino of everyone piling into one another in a free for all.

For at least the next few weeks, Israel will keep up its military campaign in Lebanon with the tacit green light from Washington. At the moment, Syria and Iran have expressed a reluctancy to cause further tension. But let's not forget that just before the outbreak of violence in Israel, the key issue on the table for the international community was Iran's nuclear proliferation and its Stalinist-styled foreign policy. It is reasonable to believe that this attitude in Teheran has not changed over a fortnight and it is not far-fetched to believe that Iran are using Hizbollah to take the heat off them, until the time is right.

In the next few weeks, the water will become clearer as to the reasons for the escalation in violence. Israel will link Hizbollah's arms and soldiers to Syria. Tensions will lead to Israel flying jets over Assad's palace. Syria's intentions will become clearer. Syrian soldiers will be found in the Hizbollah army. Israel will bomb strategic Syrian infrastructures. Syria will turn to Iran. Iran will come into the picture. The USA will be forced to come into the picture, how is uncertain. Israel will be seen as the aggressor in the eyes of the world and will stand almost alone. War by Rosh Hashana. Mashiach now.