THE ANNAPOLIS 500For months, Condoleezza has been mustering all her political resources for a conference to finally implement, or rather re-invent, the now defunct road map on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. Annapolis, November 2007, will be a 'hail Mary' throw for the Bush administration that ends in 12 months time and heralds the beginning of Bush's historical legacy.
For all parties, it is a do or die situation. Olmert's fractionalised government is hanging on by the skin of its teeth after its dismal public support record. Months ago, a poll placed his support in the single digits. Static results from Annapolis could render an even more static government without a vision, causing the coalition partners to jump ship for new elections. For Abbas and the PA, coming home empty handed with no results will render the PA a lame duck de facto government which would inevitably give Hamas a stronger ideological grounding in the West Bank, perpetuating the internal conflict.
Yet with all these chips on the table, there is a minimal chance of actual success from this conference. No side has the practical logistics or political resources to ensure a deal of Palestinian statehood within the proposed 6 month time frame. Any state created within this time will have the sovereignty and political clout of the Siam government.
The Annapolis 500 is a race with no poll position, no chequered flag and no champagne. In this race, there will be no winner, only relative losers.
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