Politics 2.0

POSH & MBEKS

The Zuma trial has shown us that JZ has been in bed, not only with his rape accuser, but with Cosatu, the SACP and certain elements within the ANC. The trial revealed a rift in the ANC which was inevitable, the showdown between Mbeks and JZ.

Revolutions come in two, the political and economic revolutions. The ANC was at the forefront of the 1990’s political revolution and has comfortably placed itself as the hegemonic power in SA politics. Whether we like it or not, the economic revolution is coming. The question now posed is how? The answer lies in the present fork in the road of the ANC.

There are two schools of thought. Mbeks is of the diplomatic, educated Fort Hare crowd. This school subscribes to the creation of a black middle class, an outward economy, NEPAD, elitism, whatever you may call it. Then there is the other school of thought which has made JZ the icon of its cause. This school is still in the umkhonto liberation mould, where JZ is being portrayed as the hero of the man in the street. It more likely the striking security guard in the street he is portraying. But the point is that the youth league, Cosatu and others who are not eating from the BEE pie are looking for a brawl with the new black elite, who, as they believe, have betrayed the cause.

Looking to the future, nothing will happen until 2010. South Africa’s economy will boom, excluding external factors, and everyone will be in shipshape to look our best when the World Cup comes. But after that, the economic revolution will have to be addressed. These are some of the scenarios that could happen in the ANC.

The JZ camp could gather support and South Africa will adopt more ‘socialist’ land reform and distributive policies like Robbie Mugabe. But ceterus paribus, that camp does not have the support necessary to take government and it is most unlikely.

More importantly, the question is how will Mbeks leave the ANC? He is stepping down next year as head of the ANC ahead of elections in 2009. Will he have enough power to put on his prodigy or will he have to compromise to keep the tripartite alliance in order?

Let’s consider the former. If Mbeks leaves his legacy on a future government of his school then we can expect pretty much the same as we have now. A drip drip effect of BEE and a rising middle class. While this is good and addresses inequality, some may argue it is too slow and not reaching the working class. This could become a divisive issue in the long term future which may force the government to adopt more leftist policies to appease the masses.

Now let’s consider the other scenario of a compromise situation now, where Mbeks steps down and is replaced by a mix of his school and the tripartite school. Well then in time, more affirmative action policies would come into place. Having said this, it would not be comparable to the radical change if the JZ school had total power.

Two things are clear. First, the ANC is at a cross-roads. Two, the economic revolution will have to occur. The open ended question is how? Will it be gradual based on keeping status quo or will it be radical.

So there’s no conclusion. But the one thing I can say for sure from the Zuma trial is that showers cure AIDS. The irony is he should have had a cold shower before and not after